race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 6: St. Paul's takes the Princess Elizabeth — and ends the season as the model's number one

St. Paul's won the Princess Elizabeth Challenge Cup on Sunday afternoon, beating St. Edward's by two-thirds of a length in 6:20. Five races, five wins, never headed. They finish the season as the…

Aug 11, 2026·Read full analysis →
race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 4: St. Edward's beats the model again, and the semi-final the draw promised is set

Eight crews were left in the Princess Elizabeth on Friday and four are left tonight, which is the least interesting thing that happened. The interesting thing is that St. Edward's — the lowest-rated…

race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 5: St. Paul's edges Radley, St. Edward's beats the model a third time, and the Final is set

The model went nought from two on Saturday. That is the whole day in a sentence, and it is not the disaster it sounds like, because the two misses are opposite in kind: one was a race it never…

race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 2: Kings College sends the last American home, and Radley and St. Paul's pull clear

Sixteen crews went afloat for the Round of 16 on Wednesday, and the story of the day was the boat that didn't come back. Kings College beat Deerfield by two and a quarter lengths, and with that the…

race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 1: The favourites hold the Princess Elizabeth, and Deerfield is the last American standing

Thirty-two crews went afloat for the Princess Elizabeth Challenge Cup on Tuesday, and sixteen came back to the Stewards' Enclosure still alive. That is the arithmetic of a Round of 32. The more…

rankings

The British rankings, and a preview of National Schools'

The course at the National Water Sports Centre is a 2,000-metre straight cut by a forest on one side and a grandstand on the other, six lanes wide and pointed almost due south. Two and a half…

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Nov 1
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Nov 7
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Nov 8
All regattas
Recent ResultsAll regattas →
W 2V8+Oct 25
Head of the Schuylkill
1Row America Rye13:16.858
2Greenwich13:34.460
3Saugatuck13:41.445
4TBC Racing13:46.743
5Mount Saint Joseph13:50.276
M 2V8+Oct 25
Head of the Schuylkill
1St. Joseph's Prep11:57.174
2PNRA/Mercer11:57.868
3Saugatuck11:57.934
4Canisius12:02.978
5Greenwich12:08.706
W V8+Oct 25
Head of the Schuylkill
1Row America Rye12:52.411
2Greenwich12:57.877
3Saugatuck13:04.199
4D.C. National13:15.440
5TBC Racing13:20.221
M V8+Oct 25
Head of the Schuylkill
1Greenwich11:05.732
2Row America Rye11:09.415
3PNRA/Mercer11:19.483
4Montclair11:22.170
5Saugatuck11:30.659
W 2V8+Oct 18
60th Head of the Charles
1Greenwich17:34.339
2TBC Racing17:43.087
3Mount Saint Joseph17:54.209
4Saugatuck18:01.004
5Oakland Strokes18:06.915
M 2V8+Oct 18
60th Head of the Charles
1Saugatuck15:37.855
2Whitman16:22.064
3Jackson-Reed16:26.507
4Montclair16:27.115
5Saratoga16:32.754
W V8+Oct 18
60th Head of the Charles
1Row America Rye16:38.162
2Greenwich16:46.537
3Milwaukee16:56.960
4St. Pauls Girls'16:59.481
5Saugatuck17:00.791
M V8+Oct 18
60th Head of the Charles
1St. Pauls14:11.288
2Radley College14:20.688
3Greenwich14:32.777
4PNRA/Mercer14:36.088
5St. Joseph's Prep14:44.219
How RPI Works

Each rating comes with a range showing how sure the model is. Every race updates all of them.

The Algorithm

1
Each rating is a best guess with a range
Each crew has a most-likely speed and a 90% credible interval around it. Crews that race often have narrow ranges. New crews start wide.
Greenwich 2069 · 90% CI 2020–2118
2
Win chances come from comparing two crews
We compare the two crews' full posterior distributions. Curves far apart mean a confident pick. Overlapping curves mean a coin flip.
Greenwich 2069 vs Row America Rye 2034
Predicted: 80% chance for Greenwich
Margin: -5.3 to +16.1 sec (90% interval at 3800m)
Posterior comparison
Row America RyeGreenwich80% Greenwich wins
3
Every race updates every rating
The model rates all crews together (hierarchical pooling), so one result moves more than the two crews in it. Beating a crew from a strong league counts for more, and league strength is learned from the races too.
One race result → every team's posterior shifts
League strengths update with team ratings
No K-factor: the data sets how far a rating moves

Accuracy & Calibration

74%
Calls correct
13,000+
H2H pairs tested
PredictedActual win rate
50–55%
56%
55–60%
60%
60–65%
67%
65–70%
71%
70–80%
79%
80–90%
87%
90–100%
94%
When the model says X%, the favorite wins about X% of the time.
Each race is scored with the ratings from before it was rowed.