The most prestigious regatta in rowing, and the only one decided two boats at a time.
Four things that make the draw below behave unlike any other regatta we model.
Henley is raced over one mile and 550 yards (2,112 metres) on a straight, narrow stretch of the Thames. Most crews spend the season racing 2,000 metres, so the finish comes later than they are used to, and pacing matters as much as speed.
Every other championship we track is decided in lanes: six crews, one final, a result you read down a sheet. Henley is a knockout. Two boats, side by side, and the loser goes home. A crew that would place third in a six-lane final can win Henley if the draw keeps it away from the two crews that would beat it.
When an event draws more entries than the rules allow, the committee arranges qualifying races in the week before the regatta, so the field has been cut once before the first round. Our model treats qualifiers no differently from invited entries, which is why some of the sharpest odds movements happen before most people are watching.
Instituted in 1946 for British public schools, the Princess Elizabeth opened to overseas crews in 1964 and to clubs in 2023. That is why the draw below mixes school eights with the likes of Marlow and Sydney University. For many junior crews it is the biggest race of the year.
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From 20,000 Monte-Carlo simulations of the fixed draw using each crew's RPI going into the regatta.
| Crew | RPI | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Pauls🏆 Champion | 2159 | >99% | 99% | 82% | 44% | 30% |
| 2Radley CollegeOut · SF | 2175 | 97% | 89% | 77% | 43% | 31% |
| 3DeerfieldOut · R16 | 2113 | 84% | 57% | 39% | 24% | 9% |
| 4Shiplake CollegeOut · QF | 2096 | 94% | 58% | 42% | 24% | 8% |
| 5WinchesterOut · R32 | 1918 | 94% | 55% | 16% | 9% | 6% |
| 6Hampton SchoolOut · QF | 2066 | 82% | 71% | 33% | 17% | 5% |
| 7WestminsterOut · R16 | 2054 | 94% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 3% |
| 8Kings CollegeOut · SF | 2040 | 99% | 38% | 20% | 9% | 2% |
| 9Phillips ExeterOut · R32 | 2001 | 54% | 49% | 18% | 7% | 2% |
| 10BedfordOut · QF | 2025 | 67% | 55% | 13% | 3% | 1% |
| 11St. EdwardsOut · Final | 1984 | 46% | 40% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 12Windsor Boys' SchoolOut · R16 | 1856 | 76% | 16% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 13Eton CollegeOut · R32 | 1956 | 33% | 23% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 14Dulwich CollegeOut · R32 | 1950 | 16% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 15Kings School ChesterOut · R32 | 1791 | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16MontclairOut · R32 | 1911 | 18% | 11% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 17Tideway ScullersOut · R32 | 1857 | 31% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 18AbingdonOut · R16 | 1943 | 69% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 19ShrewsburyOut · R16 | 1884 | 99% | 45% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 20ReadingOut · R16 | 1876 | 98% | 22% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 21Kings School WorcesterOut · R32 | 1738 | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 22Claires CourtOut · R32 | 1768 | 50% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 23Kew HouseOut · R32 | 1770 | 94% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 24Enniskillen Royal Boat ClubOut · R16 | 1766 | 50% | 4% | <1% | <1% | – |
| 25Latymer UpperOut · R32 | 1665 | 1% | <1% | – | – | – |
| 26Los GatosOut · R32 | 1710 | 24% | 1% | <1% | <1% | – |
| 27Belen JesuitOut · R32 | 1872 | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | – |
| 28Boulogne 92 AvironOut · R32 | — | 2% | – | – | – | – |
| 29Marlow R.C.Out · R32 | — | <1% | – | – | – | – |
| 30KAND R.C.Out · R16 | — | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| 31Sydney University Boat ClubOut · QF | — | 6% | <1% | – | – | – |
| 32Leeds R.C.Out · R32 | — | 1% | <1% | – | – | – |
Crews marked PROV are provisional: clubs or overseas entrants without an established RPI rating going into the regatta, simulated from a wide baseline prior.
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Every Henley we hold data for, from published draws to results-only years.
Recent Henley Royal Regatta coverage from the editorial team.
