The most prestigious regatta in rowing, and the only one decided two boats at a time.
Four things that make the draw below behave unlike any other regatta we model.
Henley is raced over one mile and 550 yards — 2,112 metres — on a straight, narrow stretch of the Thames. Crews who have spent a season learning to peak at 2,000 metres arrive to find the finish somewhere else entirely. The course doesn't reward the fastest crew so much as the one that guessed right about where to spend itself.
Every other championship we track is decided in lanes — six crews, one final, a result you read down a sheet. Henley is a knockout. Two boats, side by side, and the loser goes home. A crew that would place third in a six-lane final can win Henley by never meeting the crew that would have beaten it. That isn't a flaw in the format. It is the format.
When an event draws more entries than the rules allow, the committee arranges qualifying races in the week before the regatta — so by the time the first round is rowed, the field has already been cut once. Our model treats qualifiers no differently from invited entries, which is why some of the sharpest odds movements happen before most people are watching.
Instituted in 1946 for British public schools, the Princess Elizabeth opened to overseas crews in 1964 and to clubs in 2023 — which is why the draw below mixes school eights with the likes of Marlow and Sydney University. It is the closest thing junior rowing has to a world title, and it is decided one race at a time.
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From 20,000 Monte-Carlo simulations of the fixed draw using each crew's RPI going into the regatta.
| Crew | RPI | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Pauls🏆 Champion | 2159 | >99% | 99% | 82% | 44% | 30% |
| 2Radley CollegeOut · SF | 2175 | 97% | 89% | 77% | 43% | 30% |
| 3DeerfieldOut · R16 | 2113 | 83% | 56% | 39% | 23% | 9% |
| 4Shiplake CollegeOut · QF | 2096 | 93% | 57% | 42% | 24% | 9% |
| 5WinchesterOut · R32 | 1918 | 94% | 55% | 16% | 8% | 6% |
| 6Hampton SchoolOut · QF | 2066 | 83% | 72% | 34% | 17% | 5% |
| 7WestminsterOut · R16 | 2054 | 94% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 3% |
| 8Kings CollegeOut · SF | 2040 | 99% | 38% | 20% | 9% | 2% |
| 9Phillips ExeterOut · R32 | 2001 | 54% | 49% | 18% | 7% | 2% |
| 10BedfordOut · QF | 2025 | 67% | 55% | 13% | 3% | 1% |
| 11St. EdwardsOut · Final | 1984 | 46% | 41% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 12Windsor Boys' SchoolOut · R16 | 1856 | 76% | 16% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 13Eton CollegeOut · R32 | 1956 | 33% | 23% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 14AbingdonOut · R16 | 1943 | 68% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 15Kings School ChesterOut · R32 | 1791 | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16Tideway ScullersOut · R32 | 1857 | 32% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 17ShrewsburyOut · R16 | 1884 | 99% | 45% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 18Dulwich CollegeOut · R32 | 1950 | 17% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 19MontclairOut · R32 | 1911 | 17% | 11% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 20Kings School WorcesterOut · R32 | 1738 | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 21ReadingOut · R16 | 1876 | 99% | 22% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 22Claires CourtOut · R32 | 1768 | 50% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 23Enniskillen Royal Boat ClubOut · R16 | 1766 | 50% | 4% | <1% | <1% | – |
| 24Latymer UpperOut · R32 | 1665 | 1% | <1% | – | – | – |
| 25Los GatosOut · R32 | 1710 | 24% | 1% | <1% | – | – |
| 26Belen JesuitOut · R32 | 1872 | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | – |
| 27Boulogne 92 AvironOut · R32 | — | 1% | – | – | – | – |
| 28Marlow R.C.Out · R32 | — | – | – | – | – | – |
| 29Kew HouseOut · R32 | 1770 | 94% | 1% | <1% | <1% | – |
| 30KAND R.C.Out · R16 | — | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| 31Sydney University Boat ClubOut · QF | — | 6% | <1% | – | – | – |
| 32Leeds R.C.Out · R32 | — | 1% | <1% | – | – | – |
Crews marked PROV are provisional — clubs or overseas entrants without an established RPI rating going into the regatta, simulated from a wide baseline prior.
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Every Henley we hold data for — published draws, and results-only years.
Recent Henley Royal Regatta coverage from the editorial team.
